(Updated to include more purchasing predictions for the holiday. See information at the bottom of this page.)

Holiday spending has the potential to shatter previous records, as the National Retail Federation (NRF) forecast that holiday sales during November and December will grow between 8.5 percent and 10.5 percent over 2020 to between $843.4 billion and $859 billion.

The numbers (which exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants) compare with a previous high of 8.2 percent in 2020 to $777.3 billion and an average increase of 4.4 percent over the past five years.

“There is considerable momentum heading into the holiday shopping season. Consumers are in a very favorable position going into the last few months of the year as income is rising and household balance sheets have never been stronger. Retailers are making significant investments in their supply chains and spending heavily to ensure they have products on their shelves to meet this time of exceptional consumer demand.”

Matthew Shay
NRF President and CEO

NRF expects that online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, will increase between 11 percent and 15 percent to a total of between $218.3 billion and $226.2 billion driven by online purchases. In comparison, that number is up from $196.7 billion in 2020.

See NRF coverage | October 27, 2021 | “NRF Predicts Highest Holiday Retail Sales on Record“

More holiday spending research findings from NRF.

$997.73 | Consumers plan to spend and average of $997.73 on gifts, holiday items and other non-gift purchases for themselves and their families this year, according to the annual survey released today by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. Despite the continued supply chain disruption, this is on par with consumer spending last year.

90% | Percentage of U.S. adults plan to celebrate the upcoming holidays, including Christmas, Hanukkah and Kwanzaa, up from 87% last year.

Consumers are prioritizing gifts for family and friends and purchases related to holiday celebrations such as food or décor.

Overall plans for holiday spending remain slightly below the pre-pandemic high of $1,047.83 in 2019, as fewer consumers plan to spend on non-gift purchases for themselves and their families.

Percent of holiday shoppers who start holiday purchasing before November

While nearly half (47%) of holiday shoppers plan to take advantage of sales or price discounts during the holiday season to make non-gift purchases, they plan to spend an average of $118.41 on these items. In contrast, in 2019, 60 percent planned to make these types of purchases and expected to spend $162.02. As many continue to work from home, shoppers are also less inclined to purchase gifts for co-workers.  

However, consumers are motivated to check items off their lists earlier than ever.

49% | Percentage of holiday shoppers who will start browsing and buying before November, up from 42 percent in 2020 and the highest in the survey’s history.

Why do they shop early?

36% | Percentage of early shoppers who say they do not want to miss out on key holiday items

47% | … Say they want to avoid the stress of last-minute shopping

“Over the last few years, consumers have demonstrated the desire to begin their holiday shopping earlier and earlier,” Prosper Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist said. “This year in particular, as retailers promote holiday inventory, they are taking advantage of additional offerings such as free shipping, buy online, pick up in store and even expedited shipping to ensure they receive their gifts on time.”

The supply chain challenges that have been exacerbated since the beginning of the pandemic are top of mind for consumers.

47% | Percentage of holiday shoppers are concerned they will have difficulty finding items this year.

Category of gifts that early shoppers say they are concerned will be hard to find if they wait too late.

44% | Electronics
40% | Clothes
28% | Toys 

Online Shopping

57% | Percentage of shoppers who plan to purchase holiday items online this year, down from 60 percent who identified online as a holiday destination in 2020 and in line with pre-pandemic norms.  

Other top holiday shopping destinations include department stores (47%), discount stores (44%), grocery stores (43%) and clothing/accessories stores (30%).

24% | Percentage of consumers who plan to shop specifically at a local or small business. 

Research | The National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics

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Highlights from the annual National Retail Federation survey of college, K-12, back-to-school spending.

• Families with children in elementary through high school plan to spend an average of $848.90 on school items, which is $59 more than last year.
• Total back-to-school spending is expected to reach a record $37.1 billion, up from $33.9 billion last year and an all-time high in the survey’s history.
• College students and their families plan to spend an average of $1,200.32 on college or university items, an increase of $141 over last year.
• Over half ($80) of this increase is due to increased spending on electronics and dorm furnishings.
• Total back-to-college spending is expected to reach a record $71 billion, up from $67.7 billion in 2020.
• The vast majority (76 percent) of K-12 shoppers were still waiting on lists for school supplies as of earlier this month.
• On average, consumers reported that they had completed only 18 percent of their back-to-class purchases so far by early July.

“Consumers are spending more on items like electronics and clothing as they make plans for students to resume activities in person this fall,” Prosper Insights executive vice president of strategy Phil Rist said.

Top destinations for K-12 shoppers

Online (48 percent)
Department stores (48 percent)
Discount stores (44 percent)
Clothing stores (41 percent)
Office supplies stores (27 percent)
Electronics stores (27 percent)

The top destinations for college shoppers

Online (43 percent)
Department stores (33 percent)
Discount stores (30 percent)
Office supplies stores (29 percent)
College bookstores (28 percent)

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According to PayPal, PayPal Zettle, small businesses will have an integrated solution that enables them to accept a range of payments in-person with the Zettle card reader, helps them start selling online, and also helps them manage sales, inventory, reporting, and payments across channels, all in one place. PayPal Zettle will also enable businesses to leverage PayPal’s suite of payment and commerce solutions – from invoicing to PayPal’s Business Debit Mastercard. 

Partnering with PayPal for both in-person and online commerce, small businesses can offer their customers increased payment options, including credit and debit cards, PayPal and Venmo QR Codes, popular digital wallets and access to PayPal’s business lending solutions. All in-person and online sales can be easily viewed and managed through a business’s PayPal business account, and businesses will have access to their funds typically within one day. 

PayPal Zettle also offers interoperability through PayPal’s vast partner network, so businesses can easily link their PayPal Zettle accounts with their preferred e-commerce, accounting, and point-of-sale partners. PayPal Zettle is already integrated with a range of partners including BigCommerce, Lightspeed, QuickBooks Online and SalesVu, and will be integrating with additional partners in the coming weeks and months.  

“Consumers want seamless and integrated digital experiences no matter where they shop. As a result, small businesses need access to omnichannel payment and commerce tools to help them effectively compete and meet their customers wherever they are – in-person, online, and in-between,” said “We believe in the power of small businesses, and we will leverage PayPal Zettle to better serve in-person businesses and enable them to go digital seamlessly.” 

Jim Magats, SVP, Omni Payments, PayPal

PayPal Zettle is available to small businesses across the U.S. beginning today. Businesses can purchase their first PayPal Zettle card reader for $29, with additional readers available for $79. The transaction rate in the U.S. for card processing is 2.29% + $0.09 cents* at launch, and PayPal and Venmo QR Code transactions will be 1.9% + $0.10 cents* via PayPal Zettle.

*Fees are subject to change. 

U.S. consumers are expected to spend more than $20.1 billion on gifts and other items for Father’s Day (Sunday, June 20, 2021). The amount is a record high according to the National Retail Federation’s annual survey conducted by Prosper Insight & Analytics.

“Americans are looking forward to celebrating their fathers, husbands, and sons this Father’s Day. With our nation now making significant strides toward recovery and reopening, retailers are prepared to help customers safely find items they want and need to make this year’s holiday celebration extra meaningful.”

NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay

75% | The percentage of those surveyed who plan to celebrate Father’s Day.

50% | Plan to buy gifts for their dad
26% | Plan to buy a gift for a husband
11% | Plan to buy a gift for a son

Consumers plan to spend a little more on celebrating their dads this year, over last’s.

$174 | Survey respondents indicate they plan to spend an average of $174 on Father’s Day items ($26 more than last year and a record high for the survey).

The ages 35-44 will be this year’s biggest holiday spenders. This age group plans to spend an average of $259 on Father’s Day gifts, which is $49 more than last year.

What those active shoppers are planning to give their dads this year.

59% | Greeting cards
49% | Clothing
46% | A special outing
45% | Gift cards
28% | Personal care items

Where gifts are being purchased this year

40% | Online
33% | Department stores
22% | Specialty stores

The top items being purchased for Fathers Day

59% | Greeting cards
49% | Clothing
28% | Personal care items

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Mother’s Day spending is expected to total a record $28.1 billion this year, up $1.4 billion from 2020, according to the annual survey released today by the National Retail Federation. Approximately 83% of U.S. adults are expected to celebrate the annual holiday.

“There is a lot of consumer optimism around Mother’s Day this year as more people are getting vaccinated and stimulus checks are being distributed,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.

“For many, this is a chance to make up for last year’s Mother’s Day when we were under lockdown. With safety guidelines at top of mind, consumers are planning to be with family, are making travel plans, and organizing a special brunch or outing. All of these activities will be reflected through their purchasing decisions.

$220.48 | This year consumers plan to spend an average of on Mother’s Day items.

$16 | How much more than they planned to spend last year and the highest in the survey’s history.

59% | Jewelry accounts for over half (59 percent) of the $1.4 billion increase in spending

28% | Electronics account for over one-quarter of spending

Consumers ages 25-34 are also contributing to the increase in Mother’s Day spending.

49% | This age group says they are planning a special Mother’s Day outing such as a brunch or other activity. (While this is up slightly from last year, it is still below pre-pandemic levels. )

Last year, NRF’s 2020 Mother’s Day consumer survey occurred during the height of the government-mandated shutdowns.

• This year over one-third (34%) plan to purchase their Mother’s Day gifts online, down from 2020 when shoppers were dealing with mandated shutdowns, but still above pre-pandemic levels.
  
• In addition to ordering items online this year, consumers also plan to shop at department stores (28%), specialty stores like florists or jewelers (26%), and small businesses (23%).

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Shoppers will spend a collective $21.6 billion, down slightly from last year’s pre-pandemic forecast of $21.7 billion.

“With new stimulus funds from the President’s American Rescue Plan and positive trends in vaccinations and growing consumer confidence, there is a lot of momentum heading into the Spring and holiday events like Easter.” “Many have figured out how to celebrate holidays safely with family and that is reflected in consumer spending this Easter.”

Matthew Shay
NRF President and CEO

What will shoppers buy?

As more and more individuals become vaccinated and consumers plan to celebrate in ways they might have missed last year due to COVID-19, shoppers are buying more.

$31.06 Gifts (up from $27.91 in 2020)
$52.50 Food (up from $51.76)
$25.22 Candy (up from $23.30).

How will people spend their time?

59% | Cook a holiday meal
43% | Visit with family and friends
43% | Watch TV
31% | Easter egg hunt
28% | Attend church
22% | Attend church virtually
24% | Connect with loved ones by phone or video

“This year’s numbers reflect resilience in the last 12 months and the enduring popularity of Easter. “Keep in mind that last year’s survey was conducted in early March before the pandemic forced most of the country to shut down and reflects consumers’ pre-pandemic plans.”

Phil Rist
Prosper Insights Executive Vice President of Strategy

Where will Easter shoppers buy?

48% | At discount stores
35% | At department stores
35% | Online
23% | Specialty shops
23% | Small businesses or local store

Similar to other holiday events during the pandemic, this year’s online shopping figure (35%) is the highest in survey history, up from 35% last year.

NRF did not release its 2020 Easter survey, which was conducted in early March 2020, just before government-mandated closures took place. Due to the timing, the survey reflects consumers’ pre-pandemic plans.

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February 24, 2021 | The National Retail Federation (NRF) today issued its annual forecast. These are highlights from the association’s coverage.

Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total figure, skyrocketed to 21.9 percent at $969.4 billion as consumers shifted to eCommerce. 

Prediction | Retail sales will grow between 6.5 percent and 8.2 percent to more than $4.33 trillion in 2021 as more individuals get vaccinated and the economy reopens.

“Despite the continuing health and economic challenges COVID-19 presents, we are very optimistic that healthy consumer fundamentals, pent-up demand and widespread distribution of the vaccine will generate increased economic growth, retail sales and consumer spending, From the outset of the pandemic, retailers have gone above and beyond even the most conservative safety guidelines to protect and serve their associates and consumers alike. Retailers are increasingly engaged in working with federal, state and local health officials to distribute and administer the vaccine. This partnership has been key to our economic health throughout the pandemic and will continue this year.”

NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay

Early results show that retail sales in 2020 grew 6.7 percent over 2019 to $4.06 trillion, nearly doubling NRF’s forecast of at least 3.5 percent growth, which did not account for the impact of a global pandemic. 

The numbers exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

The 2020 November-December holiday season accounted for nearly one-fifth (19.4 percent) of overall annual retail sales. 

Retail sales during this period grew an unexpectedly high 8 percent to $787.1 billion. Non-store and other online sales represented $206.9 billion of total holiday sales, up 22.6 percent over the year before.

NRF forecasts that 2021 retail sales are estimated to total between $4.33 trillion and $4.4 trillion. Online sales, which are included in the total, are expected to grow between 18 percent and 23 percent to between $1.14 trillion and $1.19 trillion.

NRF expects the overall economy to gain between 220,000 and 300,000 jobs per month in 2021, depending on the pace of the overall economy in the second and third quarters.

Despite the economy’s stalled momentum at the end of last year, NRF forecasts real GDP growth between 4.5 percent and 5.0 percent. 

“The trajectory of the economy is predicated on the effectiveness of the vaccine and its distribution,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Our principal assumption is that that the vaccination will be effective and permits accelerated growth during the mid-year. The economy is expected to see its fastest growth in over two decades.”

Kleinhenz noted that this year marks the second year of savings, record high stock valuations, increased home prices, enhanced government support and record low interest rates, which are all contributing factors towards the economy and consumer spending behavior. 

Additionally, Kleinhenz said households will still consume retail goods but will turn to services as they are able, which normally account for 70 percent of consumer spending.

While the pandemic has precipitated broader adoption of multichannel services for the retail industry, households are becoming attached to the convenience and product selection of buying online. 

As the available data and factors surrounding the economy are subject to change due to several extenuating circumstances, NRF will update its estimates accordingly.

Note | Press Release

$32 | The drop-off of $32 this year is blamed on the pandemic and related economic crunch.

“There is no question the pandemic has disrupted many aspects of Americans’ daily interactions and activities,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “However, there remains a special significance around Valentine’s Day, and consumers are committed to celebrating friends and loved ones, even if that means having to alter those traditional holiday celebrations,” he said.

Survey highlight | This year is the first time consumers listed small businesses as a top-five shopping destination since the question was added to the survey in 2015.

$10.77 | Average spent by parents on items for children’s classmates and teachers, down from $14.45 last year.

$8.47 | Consumers plan to spend an average of $8.47 on colleagues, down from $12.96 in 2020.

74% | Percentage of consumers indicating the pandemic will directly impact their plans for the holiday.

24% | Percentage of consumers who plan to gift their loved one with an evening out, the lowest in the survey’s history.

41% | Percentage of celebrants who are planning a special dinner or celebration in the comfort of their own home.

“Consumers still feel it’s important to spoil their loved ones in light of the pandemic,” Prosper Insights executive vice president of strategy Phil Rist said. “This year’s total and average spending figures are near record highs, as the second-highest in the survey’s history.”

39% | Online is the most popular Valentine’s Day shopping destination
29% | Department stores rank second
17% | Local small businesses and specialty stores tied at 17%

The survey of 7,882 adult consumers was conducted January 4-12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points.

Credit | Jamie Grill via Getty Images

While the overall number of shoppers from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday dropped slightly from 189.6 million in an unusually robust 2019, this figure is still significantly higher than the 165.8 million shoppers in 2018.

• Between Black Friday through Small Business Saturday saw tremendous growth in online activity.
• For the first time, the number of online Black Friday shoppers passed the 100 million mark, up 8 percent over last year.
• The number of online Saturday shoppers, typically associated with small business shoppers grew even more, up 17 percent compared with last year.
• Online-only shoppers increased by 44 percent for the entire weekend, for a total of 95.7 million.

38% | Percenage of shoppers who aid they checked off holiday purchases in the week leading up to Thanksgiving.

52% | Percentage of holiday shoppers who said they took advantage of early holiday sales and promotions this year.

53% | Shoppers who say that promotions over the weekend were the same as they had been earlier in the season.

Thanksgiving in-store shopping was down given both the state of the pandemic as well as the number of retailers who opted to close on Thanksgiving Day, according to the NRF.

With consumer traffic moving to online channels, the number of in-store shoppers on Thanksgiving Day dropped by 55 percent from last year.

Black Friday dropped by 37%

An earlier NRF survey found that 70 percent of holiday shoppers say they feel safe shopping in stores this holiday season given the precautions retailers have taken for COVID-19.

Over the five-day period, shoppers spent an average of $311.75 on holiday-related purchases such as gifts or decorations, down from last year’s total of $361.90 but comparable to 2018’s $313.29.

Of that amount, nearly three-quarters ($224.48) was spent directly on gifts.

51% | Shoppers said they were more interested in holiday decorations and seasonal items.

77% | Percentage of shoppers who indicated they were more interested in supporting small businesses this year.

“The growth in online activity this year was significant, particularly for Black Friday and Saturday shoppers,” Prosper Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist said.“With the start to the holiday shopping season continuing to move up even earlier, consumers will further utilize these channels.”

Top gift purchases over the weekend included

52% | Clothing
32% | Toys
32% | Books, music, movies, video games
29% | Gift cards, certificates
27% | Electronics

Shopping destinations

39% | Grocery stores
33% | Clothing stores
31% | Electronics stores

According to this year’s survey data from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics, 194 million adults plan to celebrate Sunday’s NFL Super Bowl championship game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs. The NRF has been conducting its annual Super Bowl Spending Survey since 2005 to see how Americans plan to celebrate one of the year’s biggest sporting events.

$88.65 per celebrant | Average per celebrant spending on food, beverages, merchandise, party supplies, and related tie-in spending.

$17.2 billion | Total national Super Bowl-related spending nationwide.

Super Bowl consumer spending, 2020

Graphics| NRF
Photo | Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images